Model accuracy by stat market, tier and confidence — rebuilt daily from graded cards.
Every graded card, grouped by stat market. HIT rate counts only settled cards (pushes excluded).
| Stat | Cards | Graded | HIT rate | Avg edge | Avg books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec TDs | 61 | 0 | — | +5.2 | 3.0 |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 0 | — | +2.9 | 1.0 |
| Fantasy Score | 31 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 1.0 |
| 2nd Half Rec TDs | 29 | 0 | — | +5.8 | 2.0 |
| Fumbles | 28 | 0 | — | +5.4 | 2.5 |
| 1st Half Rec TDs | 26 | 0 | — | +5.7 | 2.0 |
| Receiving Yards | 25 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 8.7 |
| 1st Quarter Receiving Yards | 23 | 0 | — | +1.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st Half Receiving Yards | 23 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 1.0 |
| Pass Longest Reception | 23 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 6.4 |
| Fumbles Lost | 22 | 0 | — | +6.0 | 1.2 |
| 1st Quarter Receptions | 22 | 0 | — | +1.7 | 1.0 |
| Receptions | 22 | 0 | — | +0.8 | 8.9 |
| 1st Half Receptions | 22 | 0 | — | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Pass+Rush+Rec TDs | 21 | 0 | — | +2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1st Quarter Rec TDs | 15 | 0 | — | +6.4 | 1.9 |
| 3-PT Made | 15 | 0 | — | +1.4 | 8.7 |
| Pts+Rebs | 15 | 0 | — | +0.3 | 6.8 |
| Points | 15 | 0 | — | +0.2 | 15.4 |
| Pts+Asts | 15 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 6.3 |
| Rush TDs | 14 | 0 | — | +4.5 | 3.3 |
| Rebounds | 14 | 0 | — | +0.7 | 15.9 |
| Rebs+Asts | 14 | 0 | — | +0.5 | 7.5 |
| Pts+Rebs+Asts | 14 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 12.1 |
| Assists | 13 | 0 | — | +1.3 | 10.9 |
| Fantasy Points | 12 | 0 | — | +0.2 | 1.0 |
| Longest Reception | 12 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 1.0 |
| 2nd Half Rush TDs | 11 | 0 | — | +5.1 | 2.0 |
| 1st Half Touchdown | 11 | 0 | — | +3.6 | 1.0 |
| Rush+Rec TDs | 11 | 0 | — | +3.3 | 1.0 |
| Rush+Rec Yds | 11 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 4.5 |
| 2nd Half Touchdown | 10 | 0 | — | +3.4 | 1.0 |
| 1st Half Rush TDs | 9 | 0 | — | +4.9 | 2.0 |
| 1st Quarter Rushing Yards | 9 | 0 | — | +0.9 | 1.3 |
| Rush Attempts | 9 | 0 | — | +0.6 | 6.3 |
| 1st Half Rush Yards | 9 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 1.0 |
| 1st Quarter Rush TDs | 8 | 0 | — | +5.9 | 2.0 |
| Rush Longest | 8 | 0 | — | +0.2 | 7.0 |
| 1st Quarter Points | 7 | 0 | — | +0.7 | 1.7 |
| Extra Points Made | 7 | 0 | — | +0.7 | 5.0 |
| FG Made | 7 | 0 | — | +0.3 | 6.3 |
| Kicking Points | 7 | 0 | — | +0.2 | 7.3 |
| Rush Yards | 6 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 8.8 |
| 1st Quarter Pass TDs | 5 | 0 | — | +3.1 | 2.6 |
| 1st Half Pass TDs | 5 | 0 | — | +1.4 | 2.6 |
| INT | 5 | 0 | — | +0.4 | 5.2 |
| Pass Attempts | 5 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 9.0 |
| Longest Completion | 5 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 3.0 |
| Pass Completions | 5 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 8.8 |
| 1st Quarter Pass Yards | 5 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 1.4 |
| 3rd Quarter Pass TDs | 4 | 0 | — | +3.3 | 2.0 |
| 2nd Quarter Pass TDs | 4 | 0 | — | +1.8 | 2.0 |
| 2nd Half Pass TDs | 4 | 0 | — | +1.1 | 2.0 |
| 1st Half Pass Yards | 4 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 1.0 |
| Pass Longest Completion | 4 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 3.5 |
| Pass+Rush Yds | 4 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 4.8 |
| 4th Quarter Pass TDs | 3 | 0 | — | +1.8 | 2.0 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 0 | — | +0.3 | 1.0 |
| Passing Props | 3 | 0 | — | +0.1 | 1.0 |
| First Touchdown | 2 | 0 | — | +4.2 | 1.0 |
| Pass Yards | 2 | 0 | — | +0.0 | 10.5 |
| 1st Quarter Rush+Rec TDs | 1 | 0 | — | +4.2 | 1.0 |
| Pass TDs | 1 | 0 | — | +2.4 | 10.0 |
Tiers are assigned at publish time from model edge in percentage points (Diamond ≥10pp, Platinum ≥6, Gold ≥3, Silver ≥1.5, Bronze below). If the model is honest, higher tiers should hit more often — this table is the receipts check.
| Tier | Cards | Graded | HIT rate | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum | 106 | 0 | — | +6.6 |
| Gold | 169 | 0 | — | +4.5 |
| Silver | 91 | 0 | — | +2.1 |
| Bronze | 431 | 0 | — | +0.3 |
| Grade | Cards | Graded | HIT rate | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B-grade confidence | 106 | 0 | — | +6.6 |
| C-grade confidence | 691 | 0 | — | +1.6 |
A HIT rate meaningfully above the implied break-even of the cards taken is the only accuracy claim that matters. Avg edge is the mean gap between the model probability and the consensus devigged price at publish time. All numbers regenerate from raw graded cards every day — nothing is hand-edited.
The full slate — every card, every confidence grade, auto-graded results and streak chests — lands daily at 9 AM ET on hitlay.com.
SEE TODAY'S SLATE — HITLAY21+. Hitlay sells picks and analysis, not bets. Historical accuracy is not a guarantee of future results. Know your limits — 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: 2026-11-02 build.